Colombia hopes to boost oil reserves to 41 bln barrels by 2.030

Proven oil reserves currently at 2.2 bln barrels

Andean country nearing output of 1 mln barrels a day

Colombia, Latin America's fourth-largest oil producer, hopes for a 20-fold increase in oil reserves to 41 billion barrels by 2.030 in the best case scenario, or at least to 7.7 billion barrels in the worst case, the energy minister said on thursday.

Oil output in Colombia has taken off over the last decade on the back of improved security, better fiscal terms and investment in heavy oil deposits, but the country has struggled to expand its proven reserves, currently at more than 2.2 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 trillion cubic feet of gas.

The energy planning department has a study that shows three scenarios from now until 2.030 about the incorporation of o i l and gas reserves : in a scarce scenario we'd have 7.7 billion barrels in 2.030 and in one of abundance, 41 billion barrels," Energy Minister Federico Rengifo said in a statement.

After years of decline in the late 1.990s, hefty investments have put Colombia back on the oil map and its output is about to reach 1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd).

Colombia produced 956,000 bpd in september.

"What keeps me up at night is more the reserves than arriving at one million barrels," Rengifo said.

Once dismissed as a failing state, Colombia is turning its image around by keeping leftist rebels at bay, which together with the implementation of pro-market policies, the creation of a streamlined hydrocarbons agency and lower taxes has helped to lure foreign investment.

The government expects $16 billion in foreign investment this year, most of which will go into oil and mining projects.

"The different studies of the various basins have yielded that number 41 billion barrels as the potential but it's too risky for my taste to have that expectation," Luis Mejia, a former energy minister.

"If Colombia, without letting its guard down on exploration, arrives at some point to have any figure greater than the 5 billion barrels, that would be a more likely figure, but at the end of the day estimating barrels is like playing God."