Tussles over President Juan Manuel Santos' reform agenda, an ongoing guerrilla and drugs war, peso appreciation and delicate ties with neighbors Venezuela and Ecuador are key risks to watch in Colombia.
Reforms and royalties
Since coming to office in August, Santos has pushed an ambitious set of reforms ranging from adjusting the management of oil and mining royalties to overhauling the health system and government finances.
Already Colombia's fiscal performance during the global economic crisis and Santos' promises to deal with deficits prompted Standard and Poor's to grant the country investment grade, and other credit agencies will likely soon follow.
Santos has a strong majority in Congress, and analysts say Colombia is making steady progress on the reforms.
But several proposals, such as the royalty reforms which will spread benefits now earned by local oil and mining municipalities around to the rest of the country, will likely face opposition.
Santos wants to centralize how cash earned from royalties is distributed. But lawmakers may seek concessions for passing the law, especially as Santos will be looking for support ahead of local elections in October.
Local officials in commodities-producing regions are talking about protests if their royalty share is reduced.
With commodity prices rising there may also be a risk of popular demand for a greater share of oil and mining wealth.
The government will face more pressure to pay for repairs to infrastructure after months of heavy rains have destroyed roads and flooded towns killing some 400 people and displacing 3 million people, in what it says is Colombia's worst ever natural disaster.
The reconstruction will cost billions of dollars and take years.
Santos is pushing a fiscal reform to use surplus oil and mining revenues to cut debt and savings.
Other key reforms are an overhaul of the bankrupt public healthcare system and a land reform that seeks to return land taken by illegal armed groups back to farmers.
That proposal has already fueled tensions after gunman killed at least 11 leaders campaigning for the return of land, in areas where illegal militias, cocaine lords and rebels still skirmish for control of trafficking routes.
Reforms and royalties
Since coming to office in August, Santos has pushed an ambitious set of reforms ranging from adjusting the management of oil and mining royalties to overhauling the health system and government finances.
Already Colombia's fiscal performance during the global economic crisis and Santos' promises to deal with deficits prompted Standard and Poor's to grant the country investment grade, and other credit agencies will likely soon follow.
Santos has a strong majority in Congress, and analysts say Colombia is making steady progress on the reforms.
But several proposals, such as the royalty reforms which will spread benefits now earned by local oil and mining municipalities around to the rest of the country, will likely face opposition.
Santos wants to centralize how cash earned from royalties is distributed. But lawmakers may seek concessions for passing the law, especially as Santos will be looking for support ahead of local elections in October.
Local officials in commodities-producing regions are talking about protests if their royalty share is reduced.
With commodity prices rising there may also be a risk of popular demand for a greater share of oil and mining wealth.
The government will face more pressure to pay for repairs to infrastructure after months of heavy rains have destroyed roads and flooded towns killing some 400 people and displacing 3 million people, in what it says is Colombia's worst ever natural disaster.
The reconstruction will cost billions of dollars and take years.
Santos is pushing a fiscal reform to use surplus oil and mining revenues to cut debt and savings.
Other key reforms are an overhaul of the bankrupt public healthcare system and a land reform that seeks to return land taken by illegal armed groups back to farmers.
That proposal has already fueled tensions after gunman killed at least 11 leaders campaigning for the return of land, in areas where illegal militias, cocaine lords and rebels still skirmish for control of trafficking routes.
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