Hopes surround peace talks in Colombia

The prospect of peace talks in Colombia to end a half century old guerrilla war is stirring optimism among many ordinary Colombians and scholars.

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos revealed in an address to the nation monday evening that the government has been holding secret meetings with the country's biggest rebel group, the revolutionary armed forces of Colombia, or Farc by its spanish acronym, in an effort to set up formal peace talks.

Such negotiations could end Latin America's longest and bloodiest insurgency, with an estimated 50,000 to 200,000 deaths. 

It could also benefit the U.S., which has long treated Colombia as one of its closest regional allies, giving it billions of dollars in aid to fight drug-trafficking groups including the Farc.

Analysts say halting one of Latin America's top drug-running organizations could also help stem the flow of cocaine into the U.S.

The European Union and the U.S. Embassy in Colombia, which both said they welcomed talks, both label the Farc a terrorist organization.

Mr. Santos, a U.S. educated conservative who oversaw military operations against the Farc while he was defense minister, is expected to announce in the coming days a firm schedule for the talks. 

They could be held outside Colombia, perhaps in Cuba or Norway, reported Venezuela based cable station Telesur.

Mr. Santos said the talks also might include Colombia's second-biggest Marxist rebel group, the Cuban-inspired National Liberation Army, or Eln.

The FARC so far hasn't reacted publicly. Colombian officials believe its commander, Timoleón Jiménez, who goes by the alias Timochenko, has a critical role in the group's suspected drug-running business from his base across the border in Venezuela, and could be key to the talks.

The talks appear to be the first time in a decade the government has sat down with the Farc.

Colombia's previous attempt at talks with the Farc, which lasted from 1.999 to 2.002, failed. 

Former President Andrés Pastrana granted the rebels a large, demilitarized zone the size of Switzerland in southern Colombia that the rebels then used as a base for kidnapping, drug-running and other operations. 

Two other attempts at peace talks in the 1980s also went sour.

Still, this time could be different because the government is in a stronger position and the rebels, a weaker one. 

Colombia no longer suffers from unhinged cocaine-fueled violence nor does it struggle to attract investment. 

The country's economy is in a multiyear boom, fueled by a surge in oil output that has made it South America's third largest producer after Venezuela and Brazil. 

Foreign tourism has doubled in recent years.

A recent U.S. report showed that cocaine production fell by 72% over the past decade due to Colombia's eradication efforts and stepped-up law enforcement. 

A partly U.S.-funded military offensive has cut the Farc's armed force in half to about 9,000.

It remains a formidable force, and has recently stepped up deadly hit-and-run attacks on military and infrastructure targets, but its impact is diminished from a decade ago, analyst say, analysts say.

"The stage is now set for what may well be the best opportunity in nearly five decades to end the insurgency," said Grant Hurst, an analyst at IHS Jane's in London, a security risk-analysis group.

Still, the hurdles to peace remain steep.

Among them, Mr. Santos must face sharp criticism of the talks from his predecessor President Álvaro Uribe. 

"How will this government explain [peace] talks with terrorists who have assassinated Colombians," Mr. Uribe said.

A crucial question is whether the Farc and Eln will agree to stop attacks while negotiations take place. 

A deal on that point would give Mr. Santos public support.

Peace deals in recent years with Colombian right-wing paramilitary groups, the battlefield enemies of the Farc, sought to convince fighters who gave up their weapons to shift into farming or other professions.