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Monday, May 16, 2011

Colombian Share Placements Take Spotlight From Oil Stocks

Colombia's bourse, which has fallen under the spell of oil stocks in recent years, was given some much needed breathing room in the last two weeks after an airline group and a banking conglomerate issued shares.

The share sales by AviancaTaca, which operates Colombia's flagship airline, and Grupo Aval, the country's largest banking conglomerate, defused some of the Bogota exchange's dependence on oil stocks.

"They took the spotlight away from the oil companies," said Cesar Cuervo, a senior equity analyst with brokerage firm Correval SA.

The fortunes of Colombia's exchange in the last two years have been interlocked with those of Pacific Rubiales Energy, a Toronto-based oil firm that ranks as the country's largest independent oil producer, and Ecopetrol SA, Colombia's state-run oil firm.

The two firms absorb most of the trading activity and are decisive in the movements of the IGBC index, the country's benchmark.

Aval and AviancaTaca have to wait until the third quarter to be included in the index.

The two placements are also evidence of the growing appetite for Colombian stocks.

After a slow last couple of years, with only a handful of initial public offerings, the AviancaTaca and Aval share sales "clearly shows there's a lot of liquidity and interest in new issues," said Jairo Lastra, an economist with brokerage firm Proyectar Valores.

Demand for AviancaTaca's sale was five times the COP500 billion ($281 million) it awarded.

Aval, meanwhile, placed nearly $1.1 billion in the exchange, becoming one of Colombia's largest share placements.

Some analysts had expected that the share prices for the two firms would surge, but instead they have made only slight gains.

"Everybody was expecting strong gains and that created unrealistic expectations," said Jose Fernando Restrepo, head of research at Interbolsa SA, Colombia's largest brokerage.

Shares of AviancaTaca were up 0.56% to COP5,340 in recent trading Monday, while shares of Aval were flat at COP1,295.

Nutresa SA, Colombia's largest food company, is also set to carry out a share placement in the first half.

Still, the dependence on oil stocks is unlikely to recede. Some oil companies, including Ecopetrol SA, are planning more share placements, which could intensify Colombia's reliance on oil stocks.

"There are more options for diversification but the oil stocks will continue to dominate most of the trading volume," said Restrepo.

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